Official Cash Rate
2.25%
Held since 26 Nov 2025
Interest rates and the Official Cash Rate
Where the cost of money sits today, what the banks are charging, and where the rate path is most likely headed. These are the assumptions that sit underneath every feasibility and funding case we write.
Data as at 24 June 2026 · Indicative only
Next RBNZ review
8 Jul
Full Monetary Policy Statement
Lowest 1 year fixed
4.65%
Rising since February
Inflation
3.1%
4.2% forecast for June quarter
The OCR at 2.25 percent.
After one of the fastest easing cycles on record, the Reserve Bank is now holding, and signalling that the next move is more likely to be up than down.
Official Cash Rate · RBNZ
2.25%
OCR path, 2024 peak to now
The Reserve Bank cut the OCR by a cumulative 325 basis points between August 2024 and November 2025, taking it from a peak of 5.50 percent down to 2.25 percent. That is below the Bank's own estimate of a neutral rate of around 3.00 percent, which places policy in stimulatory territory.
That easing has now stalled. Since early 2026, the conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, lifting wholesale rates and the near term inflation outlook. The Bank has held at 2.25 percent while it weighs higher imported inflation against a still fragile domestic economy, and has signalled that decisive rate increases would follow if medium term inflation expectations drift away from its 2 percent target. You can follow the official position on the RBNZ OCR page.
The inflation picture explains the caution. The Consumers Price Index rose 3.1 percent in the year to the March 2026 quarter, holding above the target band, with electricity prices up 12.5 percent the single largest contributor, according to Stats NZ. Domestic, or non tradeable, inflation of 3.5 percent is proving sticky, and higher global oil prices threaten to push the headline rate up toward 4 percent later in 2026. With inflation above target and the near term risk pointing up, the case for further cuts has weakened, which is why most forecasters now expect the next move to be a rise rather than a reduction.
What the banks are charging.
Lowest carded fixed and floating rates across the main banks. Special rates generally require 20 percent equity or more, and advertised rates move often, so treat these as indicative.
Mortgage rate curve
Lowest carded rate, by term
from 4.49%
As at 21 June. Source: interest.co.nz
Where banks see the OCR
Forecast peak, by forecaster
3.0 to 4.0%
Unusually wide disagreement. Source: bank economics teams and RBNZ
| Term | Lowest carded rate | Offered by | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 months | 4.49% | ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank | rising |
| 1 year | 4.65% | ASB, BNZ | rising |
| 18 months | 4.95% | ASB, BNZ | rising |
| 2 years | 5.19% | BNZ, Westpac | rising |
| 3 years | 5.29% | Westpac | rising |
| 4 years | 5.39% | Westpac | rising |
| 5 years | 5.49% | Westpac | rising |
| Floating | 5.75 to 5.99% | Main banks | steady |
Indicative lowest carded rates as at 21 June 2026, owner occupier, 20 percent equity or more. Source: published bank rates aggregated by interest.co.nz. Rates change without notice, so confirm with the lender. This is general information, not financial advice.
Where the banks think the OCR goes next.
There is unusually wide disagreement among bank economists on the rate path, which is itself a signal of how much the outlook now hinges on global events.
| Forecaster | OCR view | Implication for mortgage rates |
|---|---|---|
| ASB | 3.00% by end 2026 | Mortgage rates expected to rise over the year |
| Westpac | 3.00% by end 2026 | Hikes pencilled for September, October and December |
| BNZ | 4.00% by May 2027 | Above market and RBNZ, so higher for longer |
| Kiwibank | Below 3% into 2028 (hoped) | Focus on downside risk, pressure could come off rates |
| RBNZ own track | about 3.2% peak | Conditional on inflation returning to the 2% target |
| Market pricing | about 3.7% | A first hike priced as early as July 2026 |
Forecasts as published in mid 2026 and subject to revision. Source: bank economics teams and the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, May 2026.
Build the rate path into your case
A feasibility is only as good as its rate assumptions.
The number that matters is not today's rate, but the rate a project will refinance or settle into. We model finance costs across the plausible OCR path, not a single optimistic figure, so a case survives the questions a credit committee will ask.
Finance costs modelled across the rate path
Conservative, base and upside scenarios
Stated plainly where a case depends on cuts
Sources and references
- RBNZ OCR decisions and Monetary Policy Statement
- interest.co.nz mortgage and term deposit tracking
- ASB, BNZ, Westpac and Kiwibank published economic commentary
- Published carded bank rates, June 2026
All figures are indicative, drawn from public sources, and current as at the date shown. Property Research Institute Ltd is not a registered financial adviser. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to fix, float or borrow. Confirm all rates directly with the relevant institution.