An independent read on values, sales, rents, confidence and supply, bringing the latest figures from every major data house into one view, with each number attributed and dated.
Synthesis as at June 2026 · Latest source data to May 2026
A note on live data. The figures below are current to the dates shown and drawn from public sources. To make them refresh on their own, the charts read from a single data file that can be pointed at a live feed from the RBNZ, interest.co.nz or the data houses once the site is hosted. For now they are maintained by hand and dated.
Three official releases set the backdrop for the housing numbers above: how much is being built, how fast the population is growing, and what is happening to the cost of living. Each figure below links to the original release.
Construction is recovering. There were 39,087 new homes consented in the year ended April 2026, up 16 percent on the year before, according to Stats NZ. The recovery is being led by higher density housing. Townhouses, flats and units reached 16,832 consents, up 19 percent, apartments rose 27 percent, and standalone houses gained 14 percent. New Zealand is now consenting 7.3 homes per 1,000 residents, up from 6.3 a year earlier.
Population growth has steadied, not collapsed. Annual net migration was a provisional gain of 24,200 in the year to March 2026, according to Stats NZ. That is up from 14,000 a year earlier, but well down from the record gain of 135,500 in the October 2023 year. A net loss of 36,500 New Zealand citizens was more than offset by a net gain of 60,800 non citizens. Slower population growth is part of why rental pressure has eased.
Inflation is sitting above the target band. The Consumers Price Index rose 3.1 percent in the year to the March 2026 quarter, the same rate as the December quarter and above the Reserve Bank's 1 to 3 percent target, per Stats NZ. Electricity, up 12.5 percent, was the single largest contributor. Sticky domestic, or non tradeable, inflation of 3.5 percent is the reason the Reserve Bank is now cautious about cutting further.
Lead finding · June 2026
The clearest signal across the data houses is one of stasis. Values are broadly flat through the first half of 2026. Buyers are in no hurry, and sellers are not being forced to give ground. Auckland and Wellington remain subdued, while even the firmer markets in the lower South Island are not racing away.
Beneath the flat headline, better affordability and a high supply of new townhouses have handed first home buyers and patient investors the stronger hand. With borrowing costs edging up again, a further soft patch over the rest of the year would not be a surprise.
Sources: Cotality, REINZ and Westpac IQ, May 2026. Paraphrased by PRI.
Auckland and Wellington are down over the year, while Canterbury, Otago and Southland have held firmer. Source: Westpac IQ on REINZ.
Each card distils a finding from a named source. We synthesise, we do not republish. Every figure is attributed and dated, and each source opens in a new tab.
The national median sat at $775,000 in April, down 0.6 percent on a year earlier, while prices excluding Auckland held flat at $700,000. May nudged up 0.2 percent.
The REINZ House Price Index remained about 16.2 percent below its peak in early 2026. Over the past five years, average annual growth has been just 0.6 percent.
Sales were down 7.9 percent on a year earlier in April. On a seasonally adjusted basis the decline was a milder 2.1 percent, consistent with buyers staying active but taking their time.
National inventory rose 3.9 percent over the year to 37,334 listings. Wellington stood out, with unsold stock climbing to around 19 weeks of cover, the largest annual increase of any major market.
The townhouse stock has reached about 242,000, some 48,000 more than eight years ago. The pipeline is holding values down, with a share of recent builds reselling at a loss.
Net migration has fallen sharply and available stock is elevated. With rents already stretched against incomes, the recent small falls reflect a reset rather than a slump.
Confidence fell in the June quarter to its lowest level since 2023, weighed down by the Middle East conflict, fuel and living costs. That is a headwind for activity.
With borrowing costs higher, nationwide prices are forecast to fall close to 1 percent over 2026, with only limited gains expected the following year. This is a year of rebuilding confidence, not a boom.
The variables most likely to move the market over the next two to three quarters.
| Factor | Current read | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| OCR and rate path | 2.25%, upward bias | Higher rates lift servicing costs and dampen demand and values |
| Inflation | 3.1% to about 4.2% | Imported oil inflation is the swing factor for the rate outlook |
| Net migration | Falling sharply | Drives rental demand and household formation |
| New build supply | Elevated | Caps price growth, favours buyers, pressures developer margins |
| Planning reform | RMA replaced by 2027 | Resets what is feasible to build, and where |
| 2026 General Election | Policy uncertainty | Tax and lending settings such as DTIs and LVRs are in play |
PRI synthesis of public commentary, June 2026. Forward looking statements are judgements, not forecasts of certainty.
From the public picture to your decision
National data sets the backdrop. It does not underwrite a site, a scheme or an acquisition. We commission down to the catchment, the typology and the comparable set, and deliver it as an independent report you can present with confidence.
This page synthesises and paraphrases publicly reported findings from the sources named above. It does not reproduce their reports. All figures are attributed and current to the dates shown, and are general information rather than valuation, investment or financial advice. Index figures from different providers use different methods and are not directly comparable, which is why the REINZ and Cotality medians differ.